Social Security Solvency Simulator

What would it take to keep Social Security sustainable?

All dollar values are expressed in real 2026 dollars.

Fiscal crisis stress test active. The real interest rate rises after trust-fund depletion and remains elevated. This is a stress scenario, not a baseline forecast.

Trust fund depletion

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Compared with baseline

OASI trust fund

Increase in public debt from Social Security

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Compared with baseline

Cumulative increase in total public debt by 2100

75-year actuarial balance

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Compared with baseline

2026–2100 · OASI · % of taxable payroll

OASIOASDI

Long-run outlook

Switch between the model’s key fiscal paths.

Selected year · 2050

What the model looks like at this point in the projection.

Selected year

2050

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Compared with baseline

Total benefits per capita

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Compared with baseline

Annual cash flow

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Compared with baseline

Trust fund balance

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Compared with baseline

Increase in public debt

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Compared with baseline

Trust fund ratio

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Compared with baseline

Worker / beneficiary ratio

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Compared with baseline

Covered workers

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Compared with baseline

Retired beneficiaries

Policy paths

See how key policy settings evolve across the projection.

Selected year · 2050

Benefits by pre-retirement income level, payroll taxes, and retirement age at this point in the projection.

Selected year

2050

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Compared with baseline

Very Low Income benefit

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Compared with baseline

Low Income benefit

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Compared with baseline

Medium Income benefit

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Compared with baseline

High Income benefit

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Compared with baseline

Maximum Taxable Income benefit

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Compared with baseline

Average payroll taxes per capita

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Compared with baseline

Retirement age

Milestone years

A compact view of how the reform package changes the path.

Year	Trust fund ratio	Cash flow	Increase in public debt	Average payroll taxes / capita	Benefits / capita	Retirement age